Last week, Nationals leader David Littleproud announced the Coalition deal would not be renewed.

Following their historic election loss, the party’s Coalition with the Liberal Party appeared to have fallen apart.

Littleproud’s press conference led to a flurry of relationship-themed headlines like: “A trial separation” and “It’s not me, it’s you”.

It turns out the very public split was only to be a brief one…. But it’s left many asking how this fledgling opposition will recover to face the largest Labor majority in Australia’s history?

Today, we’ll talk through the post-election Coalition drama, with a full breakdown of what happened and why we’re still talking about it.

At the start of 2025, opinion polls put Coalition leader Peter Dutton in the box seat to win the federal election. Pundits at the time claimed the best Labor could hope for was a minority government.

Yet on 3 May, the Liberal National Coalition suffered a landslide defeat. Not even Dutton, who had held his marginal Brisbane electorate of Dickson for 14 years, hung on to his seat.

For their part, the Nationals lost one Senate seat and failed in reclaiming Calare from the defector Andrew Gee. The regional-based party held firm to its 15 lower house seats and four Senate positions.

The Liberal party suffered a heavier defeat, losing 13 seats to Labor.

With its ranks diminished, the question then turned to the Coalition’s recovery phase, under the leadership of its new captain, Sussan Ley. But in order to rebuild together, a Coalition has to exist.

After a bruising election defeat, speculation had been building that the Liberal and National parties were not going to re-enter a Coalition agreement.

Then, on 20 May, Nationals leader David Littleproud announced the National party would be ending its formal partnership with the Liberal Party — as “Breakup” memes began flooding social media feeds.

It was the first time in nearly 40 years the two parties hadn’t agreed to an alliance.

Conventional wisdom dictates that a Coalition deal – a document full of statements about working together in a political partnership – is struck soon after the parties choose their leader following an election.

Yet, the Nationals insisted now wasn’t “the right time” for an agreement.

But why? Was there writing on the wall that the Coalition’s two parties were ‘on the rocks’?

What drove the Coalition split really depends on who you ask.

Many of the discussions leading up to Littleproud’s announcement took place behind closed doors, in party room meetings, and in private offices.

The Nationals’ official line was that they wanted guarantees from the Liberal party on four key policy positions:

As tensions escalated throughout the week, it became clear there were more disagreements between the parties.

Ley said Littleproud wouldn’t commit to “cabinet solidarity” in the shadow ministry – an old convention where senior figures agree they won’t publicly oppose official policy positions (basically an obligation to be a “good team player”). Within a day of media focus on the issue, the pair eventually agreed on cabinet solidarity.

Additionally, bitterness had been deepening between the parties over the defection of NT Senator Jacinta Nampijimpa Price from the Nationals to the Liberal Party.

Coalition sources said the Nationals wanted revenge for what they called a calculated effort by Liberal figures to recruit Price.

The jury is still out on some of these concerns, but it’s clear the Coalition was far from a ‘happy marriage’ following the recent election.

Smiling ear-to-ear and standing side by side, Ley and Littleproud addressed the media as a united front on Wednesday to announce the Coalition’s reunion.

After eight days of confusion, disagreements and negotiations, the band was back together. (Oasis fans had to wait 15 years!)

Ley said the Liberal Party had agreed to the four deal-breaker policies “in principle” (translation: they’ve reached a deal that is not a binding guarantee).

“Our parties are at their best when they work together to fight right now, as a strong opposition to this government,” Ley claimed.

Littleproud added: “We've laid the foundation stones of a Coalition that can move forward and work to together to ensure that we hold [Labor] to account”

The terms of their latest agreement are signed, sealed, and… a secret (as these Coalition deals always are).

The pair also announced the Shadow Cabinet on Wednesday. This is the official team of senior ministers who will oppose the Labor Government from the front bench in the next term of Parliament.

While the Liberal and National leaders insist they’re “focused on the future”, the drama of their brief divorce hasn’t disappeared.

Victorian Senators Jane Hume and Sarah Henderson are missing from the Coalition’s new-look front bench. Henderson has since released a statement to express regret that “a number of high-performing Liberal women have been overlooked or demoted”.

Meanwhile, David Littleproud dumped two former Nationals leaders – Michael McCormack and Barnaby Joyce – from the shadow ministry, in the spirit of what he dubbed “generational change”.

However, 58-year-old Joyce was quick to point out that the new Deputy Leader, Kevin Hogan, is 61.

“It’s not generational change, that’s ridiculous. It’s personality and politics,” Joyce told the ABC.

It hasn’t all been smooth-sailing for the Labor party either, despite a dominant election victory (where it won 94 seats to tie with the Coalition’s 1996 victory under ex-Prime Minister John Howard).

Think of the Labor Party as a marriage of two factions (groups) – the Left and Right – who, like in any partnership, don’t always agree.

While there are sub-factions and ‘unaligned’ members, Labor’s backroom can get messy, with tensions sometimes being aired publicly.

For example, it was recently revealed that two senior ministers from the first-term Albanese Government, Attorney General Mark Dreyfus and Industry & Science Minister Ed Husic, were removed from cabinet.

TDA delved into the question of whether a fractured opposition and a large Labor majority guarantee political invincibility.

Australia’s electoral history shows that voters are willing to swing heavily against a party once it gains power.

Labor has a significant majority in the House of Representatives, but it doesn’t control the Senate (upper house). This means it will still need to negotiate with the Greens or the Coalition to pass legislation.

Despite anyone’s views of the Coalition, oppositions play an important role in holding the government accountable, especially when carrying out official business in Parliament.

However, having a fractious official opposition could make it more difficult for the Coalition to hold the government to account — its central job.

Theatrics about leadership, ministry positions, and personal grudges also distract from the business of governing.

Ultimately, politicians are paid and tasked with the big job of making big decisions that impact our lives. It’s a messy game. And the messiness matters.

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