Good morning!
This week, the Coalition broke up for the second time in less than a year.
This time, the split was over hate speech laws that passed through Parliament.
Over the past few days, we’ve had a bunch of questions about the Coalition in our DMs, so today I thought I’d go through them one at a time because this stuff is confusing.
Let’s get into it!
What actually is the Coalition?
Ah, yes, a great starting point.
The Coalition is a formal, long-standing alliance (dating back to 1923) primarily between the Liberal Party and the National Party. They join forces to govern together if they win enough seats in the House of Representatives.
Since 2022, the Coalition has been in Opposition. Before that, they were in government for nearly a decade. When the Coalition is in power, the leader of the Liberal Party assumes the role of Prime Minister, and the leader of the National Party becomes Deputy Prime Minister.
The current leader of the Liberal Party is Sussan Ley, and the leader of the Nationals is David Littleproud.
What happened this week?
A lot.
Following the Bondi terrorist attack in December, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recalled Parliament to debate changes to hate speech and gun laws. The Government originally pitched one bill covering both topics, but split it to ensure both elements passed.
The Labor Government has a majority in the House of Representatives, but needs support from either the Opposition (that’s the Coalition) or the Greens to pass its bills in the Senate.
The Greens supported the gun reform bill, while the Liberals supported the hate speech bill.
You’ll notice I wrote the Liberals supported the hate speech bill, not the Coalition. That’s because the Nationals diverged from the Liberals on this matter.
In internal meetings, the Nationals raised concerns about these laws. Ley said the Coalition had worked with the Government to come to a compromise and “narrow the scope” of the bill, before it was presented to Parliament.
However, when it came to the actual vote in the House, one Nationals MP (former leader Michael McCormack) voted in favour of the bill, while the rest of the party abstained.
Then, in the Senate, the Nationals proposed a series of amendments to the hate speech bill. When these amendments failed, all four Nationals Senators voted against the bill.
Why is that such a big deal?
The Nationals Senators who voted against the bill went against the Coalition’s agreed Shadow Cabinet ‘solidarity’. That’s a lot of jargon, so let’s unpack it.
Shadow Cabinet: A Cabinet is a small group of senior ministers who have responsibility over certain areas of government. The Opposition has a Shadow Cabinet, with shadow ministers for each government portfolio, led by Ley.
Cabinet solidarity: Members of the Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet are bound by ‘solidarity’: they must not publicly disagree with party decisions.
Ok, so back to why this is such a big deal. The Nationals who voted against the hate speech bill voted differently to the Liberals. This was a particular issue because when the Coalition last broke up and reunited (last year), both Nationals and Liberals reconfirmed their commitment to cabinet solidarity.
With this solidarity broken, three Nationals Senators submitted their resignations from the Shadow Cabinet, which Ley accepted.
In a statement, Ley said: “Shadow Cabinet solidarity is not optional. It is the foundation of serious opposition and credible government.”
She said she had told Littleproud several times on Tuesday “that members of the Shadow Cabinet could not vote against the Shadow Cabinet position.”
How did we go from a few resignations to a full-blown Coalition breakup?
Following Ley’s statement on Wednesday, the Nationals held a party meeting, where they decided they would all leave the Shadow Cabinet.
Ley released a statement on Wednesday night, saying: “No permanent changes will be made to the Shadow Ministry at this time, giving the National Party time to reconsider these offers of resignation.”
A day later, on the National Day of Mourning, Littleproud held a press conference to announce the Nationals were walking away from the Coalition for the second time in eight months.
Why were the Nationals so opposed to the legislation?
A good question with a somewhat unclear answer.
Littleproud said the Nationals raised concerns about the creation of a list of hate organisations, suggesting it could have “unintended consequences that limit the rights and freedom of speech of everyday Australians and the Jewish community”.
Nationals Senator Matt Canavan said the bill gave the minister “way too much power to ban groups that go far and beyond organisations that would be encouraging or supporting violent acts”.
Former PM John Howard.
Can the Liberals win enough seats to govern on their own?
It’s happened before. In 1996, the Liberals under John Howard won 75 seats, which was enough to form a majority without the Nationals. However, they kept the Coalition, gaining another 19 seats thanks to the Nationals.
That said, it’s hard to see how a result like that could be replicated, looking at the current state of play.
The Coalition suffered its worst ever election result last election, winning just 43 seats (combined) compared to Labor’s 94. A permanent split of the Liberal-National Coalition could see both parties’ electoral chances significantly diminished. That’s before you consider the fact that they would likely end up running campaigns against each other.
Has this got anything to do with the headlines I read about One Nation?
Political analysts certainly think so. For context, an opinion poll this week showed One Nation overtaking the Coalition in popularity.
The latest ‘Newspoll’, conducted for The Australian, found 22% of voters would rank One Nation first on their ballot, while 21% would rank the Coalition first. It marked the first time the minor party had surpassed the Coalition in the Newspoll.
Opinion polls can famously be wrong, but the Nationals in particular would be very concerned about losing voters to One Nation. As ABC Election Analyst Antony Green put it: “Despite denials, I find it hard to believe that this week’s split in the Coalition doesn’t stem from the reported surge in support for One Nation. Perhaps this week is not all about One Nation, but what has been building for months is about One Nation.”
Is Sussan Ley going to lose her job?
If you ask Ley, no. When asked on Friday if she will survive as leader, she responded: “Yes, I will”.
Others are less confident.
Littleproud has said the Coalition is “untenable” under Ley’s leadership. There has been mounting speculation that a leadership challenge could occur in the first week of February, when MPs return. The two names being reported to possibly replace Ley are Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor, though neither man has confirmed any intention to challenge the Liberal leadership.
Stay tuned!
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