☕️ Will grocery prices rise by 20%?

So many of you loved the Nutella pun in yesterday’s newsletter – I don’t think we’ve ever had so many comments on our titbit.

That was thanks to Lucy, TDA’s copy editor, who helps edit this newsletter every day. I guess you could say she chocol-ate.

Ok I’ll leave the puns to her.

The quote: “Every step we take will be about stronger laws, every investment will be about more early intervention... we’re not going back to the bad old days.”
Queensland Premier David Crisafulli in an Instagram post after the state government expanded its “adult crime, adult time” policy. Judges will be able to hand down the same sentences to children and adults across 55 types of crimes.

The stat: $25 billion. The amount of money Microsoft will invest into AI technologies in Australia by 2029.

The big question:

Yesterday’s results: 66% of you said you think brands pretend to listen to feedback from young Australians, while 11% of you said you think brands do listen to the feedback and 23% of you said you weren’t sure. [1,348 votes].

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Over the past few weeks, Australian media outlets have been reporting that Aussies could soon see our grocery bills increase by 20%.

The warning came from farming industry organisations who have said they need to pass on the rising costs of production caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran.

When asked about the 20% increase, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told TDA “there will be an impact”, but stopped short of confirming the figure.

What’s driving the claims and how close is a 20% increase to reality?

The claim came from the rising costs of fuel and fertiliser following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

After the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a 33-kilometre-wide shipping lane that carries up to a quarter of the world's oil and gas supply every day.

That sent diesel prices spiking above $3.20 a litre. Farmers need diesel for everything from machinery to irrigation and transport.

Fertiliser has been hit too. Urea is a nitrogen-rich fertiliser that has become harder to import, with the Middle East producing around 45% of global supply. Some farmers have already had to reduce cropping and seeding as a result.

So, is the 20% increase actually happening at the checkout?

Not yet. Australian Bureau of Statistics data puts food price inflation at 3.1% over the past year. However, food security remains an issue.

A new report by food rescue charity OzHarvest found demand for food support jumped 31% since March.

More than one in three people currently seeking help are doing so for the first time, including mortgage holders and double-income households.

We're also already seeing prices jump for some basic food items.

Dairy co-op Norco has lifted its milk price, which it says will add about 30 cents to the average weekly shop. The company flagged more increases could follow.

Albanese told TDA on Wednesday that fuel prices “will stay higher than they were at the beginning of this outbreak [of conflict] for a period of time."

In regards to fertiliser, the Government said earlier this month it is sourcing additional supplies from Brunei and Indonesia and has made loans available to farmers.

National Farmers Federation President Hamish McIntyre welcomed that announcement, but warned farmers “are still facing tight supply and high costs.”

Reporting by Elliot Lawry.

🎧 On today’s TDA podcast, Elliot and Sam discuss prediction markets and the rise of people ‘betting’ on wars.

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A new report from property analysis company Cotality shows the prices of entry-level houses rose 6.7% in the first six months after the Government rolled out its discounted deposit scheme.

From October 2025, the Government has subsidised first home purchases, meaning people only need to save for a 5% deposit.

A spokesperson for Housing Minister Clare O’Neil said the Government makes “no apologies,” arguing that without the scheme, “many first home buyers wouldn’t be able to enter the market at all.”

In 2020, the Federal Government introduced a scheme allowing first-home buyers to purchase a property with a 5% deposit, instead of the usual 20% required by banks.

Initially, eligibility for the program was limited by income, and the number of places available each year was capped.

In October 2025, the Government removed those limits.

Property price caps still apply depending on location, up to $1.5 million.

Cotality’s report identified a 6.7% spike in the price of “entry-level homes”.

It attributed this to a few key factors:

1) Some demand was “brought forward” as buyers who might not have needed the scheme moved quickly to purchase cheaper properties, anticipating more competition once the scheme was introduced.

2) Higher home prices overall and interest rates have reduced people’s borrowing power, pushing more buyers toward lower-priced homes.

3) Record competition from investors in the cheaper end of the market, adding further pressure on first-home buyers.

The Government dismissed any direct link between rising house prices and its scheme, with a spokesperson saying: “Entry-level prices have been rising faster than the rest of the market for several years.”

In February, the ABC reported more than 22,000 homes had been purchased since the 5% scheme was expanded in October.

The spokesperson said the Government was working to “fix a supply problem generations in the making”.

The Opposition said this week’s report is evidence the Government’s “initial dodgy modelling” ignored warnings from economic experts that the policy would push up property prices.

In a statement to TDA, Shadow Housing Minister Andrew Bragg said the scheme was a “gimmick” that was “making things worse for house prices and for young Australians.”

“Labor is forcing these younger Australians to take on larger and riskier home loans,” Bragg added.

Reporting by Achol Arok.

Inflation, explained

Headlines are just part of the story, so what does inflation actually mean for your day-to-day?

CommBank Newsroom has broken down what inflation measures, what it leaves out, and why everything can still feel so expensive even if inflation is falling.

If the figures in the news don’t match your budget, this is a great place to start.

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None of the patients who participated in the immunotherapy trial have seen their bowel cancer return, almost three years after it ended. Scientists at University College London conducted the study, which tested the impact of a nine-week course of medication to help the immune system fight cancer before patients underwent surgery to remove tumours. Without immunotherapy, a quarter of bowel cancer patients will relapse in the three years after surgery and chemotherapy. The scientists called the result “extremely encouraging”.

Reporting by Lucy Tassell.

Researchers have discovered European honeybees are un-bee-lievable at maths.

A new study, published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, showed bees understand the mathematical principles “greater than” and “less than”.

Scientists also identified they can recall numbers one through to six.

The study proved prior research wrong which said bees couldn’t differentiate numbers.

Reporting by Annabel Whitehouse.