Iran is experiencing its largest anti-regime protests in years. Demonstrations have spread across the country, with reports suggesting thousands have been killed in a violent crackdown by authorities. 

What began as an economic protest has evolved into a mass movement calling for the overthrow of Iran's leadership. It’s raised questions about regional stability and potential international intervention. 

With the Iranian regime imposing an internet blackout across the country, sourcing real-time news is becoming increasingly difficult. However, in today’s newsletter, I’ll take you through what we do know about the protests and what they could mean for the region and the rest of the world.

Let’s get into it.  

To understand the significance of these protests, it’s important to understand the power structures that exist in Iran. To do that, we need to rewind to the 1970s. At that time, Iran looked very different to the country we know today. It was ruled by a U.S-backed leader, and was increasingly Westernised and secularised.

Then, in 1978, the Iranian population staged a year-long uprising, deposing the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This became known as the Iranian Revolution. 

Since 1979, the country has been an Islamic Republic with a Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Khomeini was the Supreme Leader until his 1989 death, imposing laws based on a conservative interpretation of Islamic teachings, and opposing the ‘westernisation’ of Iran. 

The current Supreme Leader is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who oversees most decision-making. While there is a president, his power is limited compared to the Ayatollah.

Overall, the country is run by religious clerics who impose conservative, Islamic laws and regulations on Iranians. 

It’s within this context that we can begin to unpack the current protests, which initially began as economic in nature but have evolved into mass anti-regime demonstrations.

These protests started on 28 December last year, when shopkeepers (known as bazaaris) in Tehran started demonstrating after the rial (Iran’s currency) hit an all-time low against the U.S. dollar. Iran’s economy has been struggling for a while now, but this was a significant moment. A day later, the head of the Central Bank of Iran resigned.

It came as figures showed that Iran’s official inflation rate reached 42.5% in December. For context: Australia’s inflation rate was 3.4% in the year to November. These economic challenges were deepened by the effects of U.S. led sanctions on Iran.

The bazaaris closed their shops to protest the impact of Iran’s collapsing currency on their businesses. The Iranian regime responded with small economic measures, hoping that would quell discontent. 

However, that was only the beginning. 

Over the past three weeks or so, the protests have grown in size, nature and significance, with initial economic concerns transforming into broader political disillusionment. Today, protests are being staged in every single province across Iran, with demonstrators calling for the complete overthrow of the regime. 

Protesters have been chanting “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to the dictator” along with messages of support for the former monarchy (the Shah). 

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah of Iran, encouraged protesters in a recent statement: “Take to the streets and, as one united front, shout your demands.” 

Iranian authorities have launched a violent crackdown against protesters. Last Thursday, authorities blocked internet and phone access, effectively cutting Iranians off from the rest of the world. The communications blackout means it’s next to impossible for news outlets to verify important updates from Iran, including death tolls. This is why reports on the casualties in Iran vary significantly.

One group, the Human Rights Activists News Agency, puts the death toll at an estimated 2,600 people. London-based new outlet Iran International estimates the toll is at 12,000 people. 

Without any reporters on the ground, it’s impossible for The Daily Aus to independently verify these figures. However, the Centre for Human Rights in Iran, based in New York, said in a statement earlier this week that “a massacre is unfolding. The world must act now to prevent further loss of life”.

Of the limited vision trickling out of the country, we’ve seen videos of hundreds of bodies piled in a makeshift morgue, machine guns fired at protesters and reports of ordered executions of at least one protester. One of our journos, Em, compiled the vision into a short timeline here.

As all of this unfolds within Iran’s borders, you might’ve also seen headlines about possible U.S. involvement. 

A few days after protests began, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media that the U.S. would come to the “rescue” of Iranians if authorities killed protesters. “We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” he added. 

In a letter to the UN Security Council, Iranian UN ambassador Iravani said that Trump had “openly threatened” Iran. 

Tensions have continued to escalate. 

Last weekend, Iran’s Supreme Leader accused the protesters of acting to “please the President of the U.S.” A day later, President Trump told media “the [U.S.] military is…looking at some very strong options”.

On Thursday, the U.S. and UK withdrew some troops from a Qatar military base “in response to the current regional tensions”. The U.S. described its decision to reduce its personnel numbers in the region as a “precautionary measure”, and there has been no direct military intervention at the time of publishing. 

As Trump continues weighing his options, U.S. officials announced new sanctions against “key Iranian leaders” on Friday. It comes days after the President declared: “Any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America.”

These protests are not the first time the Iranian population has demonstrated against their country’s leadership since the 1979 revolution. 

In 2022, mass protests erupted after 22-year-old Mahsa Jina Amini was killed following her arrest by the regime’s morality police for not wearing her hijab.

While those protests were significant, the regime ultimately remained intact. Since that time, Iran has continued to consolidate its power, especially on a regional stage. It financially and militarily backs Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Last year, Iran and Israel engaged in a two-week war, the first direct conflict between the two nations. During this time, Iran’s nuclear program was weakened.

Now, Iran’s leadership is on the brink of collapse. There is a world in which the exiled, pro-U.S. Pahlavi dynasty regains power.

The implications for everyday Iranians and the region are significant, and we’ll be here every step of the way to explain the latest.

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