Last weekend, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran, killing the regime's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Within hours, Iran fired retaliatory missiles and drones across the Middle East. By the end of the weekend, strikes had been reported in multiple countries across the region. Oil prices began surging. And millions of people were doing the same thing: opening their phones and typing "world war" into Google.

Google Trends data shows searches for the term spike by more than 76% shortly after the conflict broke out.

So how close are we to a world war, really? I spoke to an expert in war studies to find out. 

On 28 February, the U.S. and Israel launched a military operation targeting Iranian officials, military commanders, and nuclear facilities across the country. 

Khamenei, who had led Iran since 1989, was killed in the strikes, along with several other high-ranking regime officials. The strikes were the culmination of a long standoff between the U.S. and Iran over the regime’s nuclear program. U.S. President Donald Trump also cited Iran's decades-long support for armed proxy groups across the Middle East, its attacks on foreign soil, and its brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters at home.

Iran's response was swift and wide-ranging. Within 36 hours, it had struck international airports, active ports, and U.S. military bases across the region, including in Israel, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

The widespread escalation now has people wondering: Are we headed for a world war?

The term "world war" has been in use since at least 1848, when Scottish newspaper The People's Journal described conflict among “great powers” (at the time, Britain, Russia, France, Austria and Prussia), as "necessarily a world-war." Since then, it has only been formally applied to two conflicts: World War I (1914–18) and World War II (1939–1945).

There is no single, widely accepted definition for the term, but UNSW War Studies lecturer Dr Nicole Townsend says both world wars shared a clear set of characteristics that set them apart from other large-scale conflicts.

"A world war is essentially an international conflict. It's generally fought in a global way, so it has theatres and sees combat across the world," she says. 

Dr Townsend identifies three key characteristics that must be present to meet the threshold of a world war:

Beyond the scale of fighting, world wars are also defined by what happens at home.

"It doesn't just mean the mobilisation of armies," Dr Townsend says. "It also includes the mobilisation of entire societies, economies, [and] civilian populations." 

The scale of both WWI and WWII redirected entire economies and reshaped life for civilians and soldiers alike. Industries were retooled for military production, while civilians faced rationing and conscription. The strategic bombing of cities in Europe and the U.S. nuclear attacks on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are the starkest examples of that.

The short answer is no, we’re not in a world war, but the situation is complicated.

"We know from history that both world wars ultimately started from isolated, more localised conflicts or events," she says. "There is a recognition that there is a risk that this does escalate further — as it has done already," Dr Townsend said.

At the time of publishing, the U.S. and Israel remain the only nations to have launched offensive strikes on Iran. On the other side, Iran is fighting largely alone, with support from its proxy forces. Hezbollah - an Iranian-backed group based in Lebanon - entered the conflict on Monday, launching missiles and drones at Israel and breaking a ceasefire that had been in place since November 2024.

Other major powers have taken what Dr Townsend describes as a “defensive approach”.

UK PM Keir Starmer authorised U.S. strikes on Iranian missile sites from British air bases and dispatched a Royal Navy destroyer to the region, after an Iranian drone hit a British base in Cyprus. Qatar shot down two Iranian jets that entered its airspace. France and Germany, after initially calling for a return to diplomacy, have opened the door to more active involvement after Iran targeted their military bases in the region.

China and Russia - both of which have ties to Iran - have condemned the strikes without joining the fight. China's Foreign Minister called the killing of Khamenei "unacceptable" and said Beijing was "highly concerned" that the situation could be pushed into a "dangerous abyss." Russia described the U.S.-Israeli attack as an "unprovoked act of armed aggression." Neither has signalled any intention to enter the conflict militarily.

Australia has been clear. Defence Minister Richard Marles confirmed the country is not participating in the strikes. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said it was "highly unlikely" Australia would send troops, adding: "We wouldn’t anticipate participating in the future."

On Friday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed three Australian navy personnel were aboard a U.S. submarine that sank an Iranian warship this week. However, he said those personnel had no involvement in the offensive action.

Dr Townsend says the spike in ‘world war’ searches is understandable given the volume of war content being shared on social media.

"It's natural to be concerned, particularly in a world where we can't escape conflict. It's on our screens, in our pockets, 24/7. And this kind of blanket coverage stokes anxiety."

But she's not hitting the panic button just yet for a couple of reasons. 

The first is structural. “After the Second World War, we see the establishment of institutions like the UN and the formalisation of much of international law specifically to prevent these kinds of conflicts,” Dr Townsend says.

The second reason, she argues, is self-interest. 

"There's a reason we haven't had a world war in 85 years," she says. "These things can escalate, but they do tend to be diffused, particularly when nations have an interest in doing so. And in a globalised world like the one we live in now, everyone has an interest in stopping global conflict, because it essentially will break the system."

For now, the conflict in Iran remains a regional war with global consequences — devastating for those caught in it, and worrying for the rest of us watching. Whether it stays that way depends on decisions being made in Washington, Beijing, Moscow, and capitals across the Middle East.

Only time will tell.

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