This week, One Nation Senator Pauline Hanson was invited to speak at the National Press Club, where she outlined her party’s views on the country.

I’m sure by now you’ve seen the stunt that went viral behind her speaking, or the short Instagram reels of her arguing with journalists, but in today’s newsletter I wanted to focus on policy. Specifically, what One Nation’s policy positions actually are.

Much has been said and written about the veracity of the polling that shows Hanson’s party gaining serious support across the country. Whether or not you trust the polls, One Nation picked up a seat in a recent by-election and Hanson is entering “mainstream” spaces like the National Press Club for the first time in her 30-year political career, so let’s discuss what she’s offering Australian voters.

A quick reminder on the current state of play:

One nation has won 1 seat in the Australian House of Representatives, the seat of Farrer. This was Sussan Ley’s old seat and was previously held by the Liberal Party. One Nation picked up about 58% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in that election.

The party holds another seat in the House because Barnaby Joyce, a former leader of the Nationals, defected from that party to briefly become an independent, before joining One Nation. So despite not having been voted into Parliament as a One Nation MP, he now sits in the Lower House as one.

The leader of One Nation is Pauline Hanson, who was first elected to Parliament in 1996. She is one of four Senators from One Nation currently sitting in the Senate.

The next Federal Election is expected by May 2028 - not for a while. However, we have a Victorian election in November this year, and a NSW election in March next year.

With that foundation laid, let’s talk about policy. There are established policy positions that have been published on One Nation’s website, and then there are passing comments that have been made publicly about policy that aren’t necessarily entrenched. I will try to incorporate both to give you a sense of where things stand.

Immigration:
One Nation’s immigration policy says its aim is to “put Australians first”. As such, it will:
- Deport 75,000 “illegal migrants” which includes “visa overstayers”, “illegal workers” and “unlawful non-residents”.
- Cut immigration by over 570,000 people from current levels
- Deport any visa holder who breaks the law. Note: Currently, under Australian law, any visa can be refused or cancelled if you do not pass ‘the character test’ (which includes a substantial criminal record).
- In her recent speech, Hanson reiterated that there is “no room for hate preachers in this country”, adding: “If they have arrived here, they will be deported. If they were born here, they will face the full force of the law.”
- More broadly, Hanson explicitly stated that the “immigration crisis” is the result of multiculturalism and called for a monocultural Australia where people live under “one cultural umbrella”.  

Housing:
Broadly, Hanson links the housing crisis to migration issues, suggesting that “unsustainable demand is being driven by several factors, but the biggest is high immigration”. On housing, One Nation will: 
- Introduce a five-year moratorium (suspension) on charging GST on building materials to help reduce the cost of new housing
- Review “excessive government charges” that they say make up 44% of the cost of new homes
- Remove “mandatory disability compliance requirements” on new homes
- In her speech, Hanson suggested the Labor government’s changes to negative gearing will “move investment away from housing”. Last month, she said “One Nation supports negative gearing being allowed on two homes for everyone”. 

Cost of living:
When it comes to cost of living, Hanson connects rising cost of living to the Government’s energy and climate policy. She claims: “The cost of energy feeds into everything we use, we eat, we manufacture, everything.” As such, her party proposes:
- Changing the National Energy Market rules to enable cheaper coal and gas fired baseload power while supporting nuclear energy in the “medium term”. Broadening out to climate policy, One Nation believes Australia should withdraw from the UN Paris Agreement “immediately”. They label themselves as “the only political party to question climate science”. 
- Aim to “slash” electricity bills by 20% “immediately”. 
- Halve the fuel excise (the tax on fuel that was cut recently during the oil crisis) for 3 years
- Remove the tax on beer and spirits at venues

On health, One Nation proposes to:
- Introduce three-year contracts for newly qualified medical professionals and in return pay their HECS loans in full
- Establish a Royal Commission into the management of COVID-19 by Australian governments. One Nation opposes COVID-19 vaccine mandates.
- Reduce the gestational limit for abortions and implement counselling for women considering an abortion

Media:
In her speech, Hanson said she “doesn’t answer to the media” and outlined new policy positions on media, including:
- The ABC to become a subscription-only service in Australian cities, while taxpayers would fund its operations in regional, rural and remote areas
- SBS will be “gone”. No further information was provided here.

Every time we write about new polling on One Nation, we get a bunch of the same comments that go something along the lines of “nobody I know has been polled, I don’t believe this” or “How can a poll of 2,000 people be legit?”

TDA journalist Emily Donohoe wrote this quick explainer for you.

Research companies that conduct public opinion polls and surveys are known as pollsters. In Australia, media companies commission polling firms to research voter sentiment and public opinion. Major pollsters include RedBridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and YouGov.

Polling companies often ask people, via online panels, phone interviews and text messages, which party they would rank first on their ballot if an election were held tomorrow, and who they would prefer as prime minister. So, how do they get results that are representative? One method used by some companies is multi-level regression with post-stratification (thankfully known by its acronym MRP).

MRP uses demographic characteristics such as age, gender, education level and location to identify voting patterns. Pollsters also consider how different demographic groups have voted in the past.

Ultimately, polls use the responses of a relatively small group (usually at least 1,000 people) to make informed estimates about the views of the broader population. 

We’ve now seen concurrent polls, commissioned by very different companies, all paint the same picture: growing support for One Nation across the country.

But let’s end here: polls are not predictions. They are snapshots of public opinion at a particular moment in time. 

If you have any other questions, hit reply and we’ll try our best to answer them!

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