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Good morning!

All eyes are on the RBA today with a cash rate decision due to be made public at 2:30pm.

Reminder: We usually refer to changes in the cash rate as the RBA changing interest rates, because it affects rates across the economy, including home loans. The higher the interest rate, the more expensive it is to borrow money.

It’s mostly expected that the RBA will leave interest rates on hold at 4.35%.

I’ve got 10 seconds

The quote: “We know that screen-free time is important to help students engage with their learning, so we’re asking schools to include it in their curriculum.”
Victorian Education Minister Ben Carroll in a media release announcing high schools will be asked to include device-free time in their curriculum from 2027.

The stat: 10 million. The population cap proposed in a referendum in Switzerland on the weekend, which was rejected by 55% of Swiss voters.

The big question:

Yesterday’s results: 79% of you said you’re not actively trying to build your AI skills outside of work or study, while 21% of you are trying to build those skills. Thanks for voting - your responses inform TDA's journalism and research. [1,833 votes].

I’ve got 30 seconds

Some headlines from this morning:

  • The Australian share market has surged to an eight-week high while oil prices have plunged. It comes after U.S. and Iran confirmed plans to cease hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but precise details have not yet been made public. Representatives from Iran and the U.S. will attend an official signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. Global oil prices fell 4% on news of the deal, while the ASX 200 opened 1.1% higher, before lifting another 0.3 points by midday. The Australian dollar also climbed to 70.85 US cents, up 0.6%.

  • The Federal Government has urged Pakistani authorities to launch an inquiry into the death of a young Australian girl. Nine-year-old Hania Ahmed was holidaying with her family in Pakistan's Punjab province when their rental car was targeted by armed robbers last week. The suspects shot at an officer, leading to an exchange of gunfire. A statement from local police said: “In the ensuing chaos, the officer involved mistakenly assessed that the suspects were attempting to flee in the victims' vehicle and discharged his weapon… [resulting] in the tragic death of... Hania and injuries to her father and brother.” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters in Canberra: “My heart goes out to the [victims’] family and friends, and indeed the Pakistani Australian community”. The policeman involved was suspended from duty and formally arrested. He remains in police custody as investigations continue.

Together with AAP.

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I’ve got 1 minute

Polling conducted for Nine this week showed One Nation leader Pauline Hanson overtaking Anthony Albanese as voters’ preferred prime minister for the first time. The result follows a series of polls in which One Nation has emerged as respondents’ preferred party since mid-2026.

Polling is a regular feature of Australian politics, used by media outlets and political parties to track how voters are feeling. But how does it actually work?

Pollsters

Research companies that conduct public opinion polls and surveys are known as pollsters.

In Australia, media companies commission polling firms to research voter sentiment and public opinion. Major pollsters include RedBridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and YouGov. Polling companies often ask people, via online panels, phone interviews and text messages, which party they would rank first on their ballot if an election were held tomorrow, and who they would prefer as prime minister.

So, how do they get results that are representative? One method used by some companies is multi-level regression with post-stratification (thankfully known by its acronym MRP).

MRP uses demographic characteristics such as age, gender, education level and location to identify voting patterns. Pollsters also consider how different demographic groups have voted in the past. Ultimately, polls use the responses of a relatively small group (usually at least 1,000 people) to make informed estimates about the views of the broader population.

Recent results

In the lead-up to the 2025 federal election, One Nation attracted 7% support on a first-preference basis in the Resolve Political Monitor (RPM) poll conducted for Nine. The party went on to receive 6.4% of the primary vote.

The tides shifted at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, however, when One Nation’s first-preference support nearly doubled between November and February.

The latest RPM poll shows Pauline Hanson ahead of Anthony Albanese as preferred Prime Minister for the first time.

Reporting by Emily Donohoe.

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I’ve got 2 minutes

A woman is in a critical condition after she was bitten by a shark at Coogee Beach in Sydney’s east on Saturday.

The 35-year-old was swimming about 30 metres from the shore at the time of the incident. She was airlifted to hospital with serious arm and leg injuries.

It’s the latest in a string of attacks this year, putting Australia’s shark mitigation programs back in the spotlight.

Attacks

Australia has averaged between two and three fatal shark attacks per year since 2000. There were five in 2025. There have been four shark attack deaths in Australia so far this year. On Saturday, a woman was swimming between the flags at Coogee when she was bitten by what experts believe was a great white shark.

Researchers from James Cook University have linked global warming to changing shark migration patterns. Warmer water temperatures may cause some shark species, in particular bull and tiger sharks, to linger for longer periods off the NSW coast.

Mitigation

Several methods aimed at mitigating shark attacks are in place in NSW, including the use of more than 300 ‘SMART’ (Shark Management Alert In Real-Time) drumlines along the coast. These anchored buoys are rigged with a GPS communications unit and baited hooks.

Within 30 minutes of an animal taking the bait, the NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI) deploys a team to tag and release the shark.

Since 2016, more than 1,570 white sharks have been tagged using the SMART drumlines. Hundreds of tiger and bull sharks have also been tagged during that time.

Shark nets

Shark nets are also used at several NSW beaches from September to April.

Nets (also called ‘shark meshing’) were first introduced in NSW in 1937, as a way to limit dangerous shark interactions with humans. However, sharks can swim over, under and around them.

More than 90% of animals caught in shark nets are ‘non-target species,’ according to DPI data. This includes endangered grey nurse sharks and turtle species. In 2023/24, 36% of the animals caught in NSW nets were released alive.

At the time of Saturday’s attack, Coogee’s shark net had been removed for winter. Shark nets will be returned to Coogee from September.

Drones

Drones are another method for tracking sharks, spotting more than 1,000 in NSW in the past year. However, Coogee beach sits under a major flight path, meaning drones have been banned from operating in the airspace above it.

The NSW Government temporarily lifted the restriction on Sunday. It is now reviewing whether to permanently allow low-flying drones for shark surveillance in the area.

Culling

Australia is home to an estimated white shark population of 750 adults. The species is protected under the Federal Government’s Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act.

This week, Former Prime Minister and current Liberal party president Tony Abbott called for a shark cull.

NSW Agriculture Minister Tara Moriarty told Sky News she wasn’t “ruling anything out”. However, Premier Chris Minns has since rejected a white shark cull. “I’m not convinced it would work and certainly we haven’t received evidence or information that it would work,” he said.

Reporting by Elliot Lawry.

A message from Dry July

Thinking of going dry this July? Well, the rules are simple:

  • Sign up to Dry July®

  • Ask your people to sponsor you

  • Go alcohol-free for the month.

The funds you raise will make a real difference for cancer patients, their families and carers.

Not to mention going sober for 31 days comes likely bring better sleep, more energy and hangover-free weekends. So you’re helping others and feeling great, that is a win-win.

Give me some good news

Scientists have found a blood test that can identify people likely to develop lung cancer up to five years before the disease takes hold.

Australian scientist Dr Clare Weeden co-led the research, which used AI to analyse early warning signs across blood samples from over 48,000 people. The study, published in the journal Cell, detected a tell-tale risk pattern across 14 different proteins. Crucially, the signal appears linked to lung inflammation triggered by factors like air pollution, rather than smoking alone, meaning the test could help identify at-risk people currently excluded from screening programs. Experts say the discovery could one day allow doctors to intervene before cancer even develops.

Reporting by Emma Gillespie.

TDA titbit

There was a lot of sport news over the weekend, but we think this is the most fun (sorry, Socceroos).

The 59th annual World Custard Pie Championships were held in Kent on Saturday, with 30 teams competing.

Competitors throw custard pies at one another and are judged on their accuracy and throwing technique. A participant told the BBC the competition started off as a bit of fun but later became “more and more serious”.

The team ‘The Old School Ravers’ took the cake pie, winning the competition.

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