Today I was meant to be hanging out with my parents. They live in Melbourne and every Easter long weekend they visit me to take advantage of the last of Sydney’s warm weather.

Needless to say, they didn’t make it this time.

With global conflicts driving up fuel and flight prices, my parents’ trip became all too expensive. And they’re not alone.

Over 2,300 TDA readers responded to a poll in our newsletter this week. 42% told us they were forced to change, or were at least considering changing, their Easter plans this year.

It comes after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese gave a rare address to the nation this week, telling travellers to “enjoy” the long weekend, but also not to “take more fuel than you need.”

Here's what it all means for business and tourism operators this weekend.

Fuel prices have surged across Australia over the past month. On 25 March, regular unleaded cost an average of $2.52 per litre in capital cities. Costs are even higher in regional areas.

To put that in perspective, Australians have paid well below $2 a litre for most of the past decade.

During an address to the nation on Wednesday night, Albanese told Australians: “The war in the Middle East has caused the biggest spike in petrol and diesel prices in history.”

A lot of the issue comes down to where we get our fuel from in the first place. Unlike some countries, Australia refines very little of its own petrol and imports most of it – particularly from refineries in Singapore.

Those refineries price fuel based on the global cost of crude oil, which has increased dramatically since the conflict in the Middle East escalated.

That’s because roughly 20-25% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route now being blocked by Iran in retaliation for U.S. strikes.

In plain terms: when the world's oil gets more expensive, Australians feel it almost immediately at the servo.

For tourism and hospitality operators, this Easter could not have come at a worse time. Airlines have also been forced to raise fares due to higher jet fuel costs, as travellers reconsider their flying and road trip plans.

Just last week I took a drove down the Hume Highway for a wedding in country Victoria. Pumps had run dry at almost half the service stations I passed along the way.

The fuel crisis is particularly hurting regional operators. The Tourism Industry Council of South Australia said cancellations and lost bookings have led to a 32% drop in revenue over the Easter school holiday period.

There's another number haunting the industry right now: $3 a litre.

Research by NSW's largest holiday group, Reflections Holidays, surveyed 9,000 people and found that almost two-thirds would holiday closer to home if fuel hit that mark.

This Easter is a snapshot of just how exposed Australia is to global energy shocks, but there is some relief on the horizon.

Following a National Cabinet meeting earlier this week, the Federal Government announced it will halve the fuel excise for the next three months. The long-standing tax on petrol and diesel has been cut to 26.3 cents per litre. The saving equates to around $19 off a 65-litre tank.

The Prime Minister said the cut had already started flowing through in some locations, and he’s urged Australians to go about their Easter as normal — filling up as they ordinarily would rather than panic buying.

Tourism & Transport Forum Australia CEO Margy Osmond warned the fuel excise does nothing for the aviation sector, where high jet fuel prices are continuing to drive up the cost of flying.

“If we want to see a full recovery in tourism and keep travel accessible for Australians, we also need to look at measures that support the aviation industry,” she said.

For the thousands of Australians who, like my parents, looked into catching a flight rather than hitting the highway, the sting remains.

What we’re seeing in real-time is how geopolitical developments can trigger price changes within days.

As the Prime Minister put it, these are “uncertain times”. Here’s hoping they’re a little less uncertain this time next year.

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