Good morning.

Two years ago today, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his country would invade Ukraine. 

As the war enters another year, experts suggest Putin’s plan is to wait for Ukraine to exhaust its resources and give up. 

After all, there’s a compelling argument he’s the most powerful man in the world right now. 

Putin’s most vocal opponent, Alexei Navalny, is dead. He’s got one of the only lines of communication with North Korea, the world’s most closed-off country. This month, leading U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump said he’s willing to let Russia “do whatever they hell they want” to other countries. An election in Russia next month, in which Putin is running effectively unopposed, will likely set him up to become Russia’s longest-serving ruler since the 18th century. 

So, who is Vladimir Putin? Why is he so committed to the war in Ukraine? And what could possibly be next for him? 

Who is Vladimir Putin?

Growing up, Vladimir Putin dreamed of becoming a spy. He trained in martial arts as a child and studied law after high school because it paved the way for entrance to the KGB, the Soviet Union intelligence agency. 

But after signing up it wasn’t smooth sailing, according to journalist Masha Gessen, who says that after years of training, Putin was disappointed to get a desk job in East Germany.

In 1990, Putin returned to Russia. He started working in local government and quit the KGB as the Soviet Union fell apart. 

In 1996, he began working for then-President Boris Yeltsin. He made friends with Yeltsin’s chief of staff and earned a reputation as a “strong manager”. 

Then, in a very quick series of promotions, Putin went from a couple of high-powered admin roles (1996-98), to the head of the Russian security agency (1998), to Prime Minister of Russia under an ailing President (August 1999). 

Why were these promotions so fast? Was he just the right man, in the right place, at the right time? Or was something bigger at play? It’s a mystery experts can’t solve. 

On New Year’s Eve, 1999, Yeltsin resigned and appointed a new President. Russia entered a new millennium with Vladimir Putin as their head of state. 

He’s held power ever since. 

The 2022 invasion

In February 2022, Putin announced a ‘special military operation’. In this announcement, he spoke of the parts of Russia that were ‘left behind’ when the Soviet Union dissolved. 

“Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space… Since time immemorial, the people living in the south-west of what has historically been Russian land have called themselves Russians,” he said. 

Russian troops entered Ukraine from multiple directions and attacked the capital, Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the country would defend itself. 

The military mobilised. Civilians hid in underground train stations. Defying rumours he’d gone into hiding, Zelenskyy walked the streets of the bombarded capital. 

Ukraine retook large chunks of its territory in 2022, but its counteroffensive against Russia stalled in 2023. 

International estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of soldiers from both sides have been killed and wounded in the conflict, but neither Russia or Ukraine has released specific data on its casualties. Last year, the UN estimated 10,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed since the war began. 

The biggest recent development in the conflict came when Russia claimed the town of Avdiivka after months of fighting. The loss of Avdiivka was a significant blow to Ukraine, and Putin said Russia will build on that victory. 

So what’s next…

…for the war?

Ukraine has held on longer than Russia predicted. In the early days, foreign aid poured in, Zelenskyy was greeted with applause in parliaments around the Western world, and progress was made on the country’s long-awaited application to NATO (more on that later).  

But now, U.S. funding is stalled in Congress and UN humanitarian funds are critically low.

Analysts say Putin’s plan is to let Ukraine exhaust its access to international aid, goodwill from Western governments, and people willing to fight.

…for his Presidency?

In 2020, Russia held a referendum to change how its presidencies work, allowing the President to lead for more than two six-year terms in a row. An expert described the process to The New York Times as “theatre”, because “the system needs to stage displays of public support even when it doesn’t have it.”

At the time, Putin was a couple of years into his second consecutive term, which under the previous law would have seen him step down this year. Instead, the referendum approved changes that meant his previous terms were ’reset’. 

When he wins the election in March, Putin will be President until at least 2030. It’s a done deal. He has no real opposition, his approval ratings are sky high (although there’s no way to know how trustworthy Russian poll data is) and there’s no free media in Russia to air any dissent. 

…for the rest of the world?

Western governments have moved to consolidate their power against Russia, not least of which is allowing new members into NATO. That’s the powerful military alliance of North American and European countries. Last year, Sweden and Finland were granted the go-ahead to join NATO. It means Ukraine is now one of two countries on Russia’s European border still not in the alliance. 

Ukraine has wanted to join NATO for years, but there’s one really big reason why it hasn’t happened yet. NATO countries must come to the defence of their fellow members if attacked. 

Putin has made it very clear that he sees NATO as encroaching on his territory. If Ukraine were to join in the middle of this war, it would compel all NATO countries into direct conflict with Russia.

We’d likely call that World War Three. 

No going back

Whatever happens now, it’s clear that Europe will never go back to how it was before Russia marched across Ukraine’s borders two years ago. 

Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “The era of peace in Europe is over.”  

Despite these rapid and irreversible changes, one thing’s been the same since New Year’s Eve 1999: Vladimir Putin has the power. 

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