Excited about the federal election?

If you didn’t immediately leap out of your seat to say “yes”, as TDA’s political journalist, I’ll make it my job to turn that hesitation into affirmation.

While we don’t yet have a confirmed date for the next federal election, (it has to happen by 17 May) the Government and Opposition soft-launched their unofficial campaigns over the summer holidays.

While many of us were enjoying the break and losing track of what day it was, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton were hard at work figuring out how to convince voters to support their respective parties – Labor and the Coalition.

Over the coming months, there are a few guaranteed issues on the Australian election buzzword bingo card you can expect to hear more about: Nuclear power, cost of living, minority government, and Parliament’s gender balance.

Women’s representation in Australian politics has become an increasingly debated issue around election time. With that in mind, we’ve analysed the candidates being put forward by the major parties leading up to polling day. We’ll take a closer look at those findings today, and what they could tell us about the future of Parliament’s gender balance.

Getting ready for a race means you need racers.

This election will be determined by 150 races, spanning every corner of Australia. Hundreds and hundreds of racers (candidates) will be hoping to be the top pick in each race (electorate).

The major parties are well-oiled machines that undergo what’s known as “preselection” to determine who will represent them on the ballot in each electorate.

How those names end up on the ballot in the first place is usually up to a party’s local branch members. These representatives typically vote for a candidate who reflects their community’s interests.

However, this process can be overridden by a “captain’s call”, when a more senior member of a party intervenes to appoint a candidate of their choosing, even if they don’t have significant local support.

For example, ahead of the last election, then-PM Scott Morrison picked Katherine Deves to run in the seat of Warringah, on Sydney’s Northern Beaches. Deves – known for her views against trans women’s participation in sports – lost the traditional blue-ribbon Liberal seat to Independent Zali Steggall.

Most sitting MPs are seeking reelection this year. Labor and the Coalition have already preselected candidates in most of the seats they hope to win or where there is likely to be a competitive race. We did a bit of number crunching. Here’s what we found out about the gender breakdown of these candidates.

The House of Representatives, aka “the lower house”, is made up of 151 members. At this election, it’ll go down to 150 (why? Dizzying electoral maths, but that is for another day).

Overall, 39% of current MPs in the lower house are women. 47% of Labor’s seats in the House of Representatives are filled by women. For the Liberal-National Coalition, that figure is 20%.

All major political parties are led by men: Labor, Liberal, Nationals, and the Greens.

In Parliament, only micro parties are led by women leaders — The Centre Alliance (Rebecca Sharkie), Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the Jacqui Lambie Network – led by the party’s namesake.

The Senate, aka “the upper house”, is majority female, where 57% of Senators are women.

Elections work differently for the Senate, but based on current preselection figures, its gender makeup isn’t likely to shift significantly at the next election.

TDA analysed all known candidates running in electorates around the country. Women make up 30% of candidates selected by the Coalition, so far.

It’s important to note this is an incomplete figure. The Coalition is yet to select candidates in at least 28 races; however, the Liberal and National parties are unlikely to win in many of these remaining electorates, because they’re traditionally safe Labor/Greens/Independent seats like Sydney and Cooper (inner-north of Melbourne).

Many of the recontesting Coalition MPs are men. It has become rare for a sitting MP to lose preselection, although two serving MPs have been replaced as the Liberal candidates in their electorates.

53% of Labor candidates so far are women. Many of the 50 unfilled candidacies are in safe Coalition or crossbench seats, like Parkes (regional NSW) and Indi (north-east Victoria), which Labor is unlikely to win.

Based on these numbers, a swing towards the Coalition at the election, (which would see the Liberals and Nationals gain more seats) would mean fewer women in Parliament overall. Opinion polls consistently show the Albo v. Dutton race is tight, but Dutton’s Coalition is currently ahead.

TDA also analysed 52 of the most competitive races around the country, in Coalition, Labor, and crossbench-held seats.

For example, we analysed seats with margins of 10% or lower, as well as seats that both parties have identified as winnable.

Out of the Coalition candidates in these tight races, 20 are women and 32 are men.

Of their main challengers – ranging from Labor to the Greens and Independents – there are 34 women and 18 men.

Founder of Hilma’s Network – an organisation aimed at boosting the representation of women in the Liberal Party – Charlotte Mortlock told TDA, “we’re heading in the right direction,” but “we need to do more for female representation and at a faster pace.”

According to the Hilma’s Network website, the average Australian is “a female 37-year-old, but the average Liberal Party member is a male in his 60s.”

The “problem” stems from a grassroots level, according to Mortlock, who says the people who make preselection decisions (local party members) are often older and male.

“These branch meetings haven’t adapted enough to make it appealing to people to be involved in politics.”

Mortlock believes more women need to try to shift the scales. “If you don’t want political parties to go to the fringes, then you need to join them.”

However, she says candidates – including Amelia Hamer in Kooyong (Melbourne’s inner-east) and Mary Aldred in Monash (regional Victoria) – mean the Liberal Party is “going in the right direction”.

“It just needs to be faster,” Mortlock said.

“We get it, and we want what you want,” Deputy Liberal leader and Shadow Minister for Women, Sussan Ley, told TDA.

Ley defended the representation of women in senior positions in the Coalition, who she said are working to ensure issues that are important to women are heard. “We understand that [women] value access to healthcare, parental supports, childcare and want economic security and safety,” Ley said.

Following its 2022 election loss, a Liberal party review stated the party’s “standing with women” was “an important factor in the Party’s defeat.”

The review recommended the party adopt a target of 50% female representation within a decade. TDA’s analysis shows the Liberals are currently short of this goal by nearly 20%.

Carol Schwartz AO is Chair of the Women’s Leadership Institute Australia, and coordinates the non-partisan program ‘Pathway to Politics for Women’.

Schwartz noted recent progress in Canberra. For example, the number of women in Cabinet has increased from one (under the Abbott Government in 2015) to 11 under the current Albanese Government. However, she said women continue to face obstacles entering a political arena that historically was “designed by men, for men”.

“50 to 60 years ago, women couldn’t go to the toilet in Parliament because they weren’t expected to be participating and contributing to politics,” Schwartz told TDA.

Rotating leadership roles between men and women, Schwartz contends, could usher in a more gender-balanced Parliament.

“It's a real blight on our country that we don't elevate women into those ultimate leadership roles.”

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