Happy voting day Tasmania!

Tasmania is known for its clean air. Its state tourism campaign invites mainland Australians to “come down for air”, marketing Tasmania’s lush scenery as a sanctuary to breathe. The air in politics was also meant to stay clear in 2024.

But a month ago, the political winds changed course, sending more than 400,000 Tasmanian voters to the polls 18 months earlier than expected.

Tasmania is the last place in Australia where the Liberal Party is in power. If there is a change of government today, every state, territory, and federal level of government could be run by the Labor Party.

Why is Tasmania heading to an early election? What are the main issues? And can the country’s last Liberal Government hold on?

The early election

It’s fair to say the Liberal Party in Tasmania has had a rocky road over the past few years. There have been a string of resignations, including the COVID-era Premier Peter Gutwein, who stepped down because he was exhausted – giving way to the current Premier Jeremy Rockliff.

More recently, the Government was thrown into chaos when two Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker (pictured above) resigned from the party and moved to the crossbench over a proposed football stadium (but more on that later).

These two resignations were the final straw; the move plunged the Liberal Party and leader Jeremy Rockliff into a minority government. Minority government means the Government doesn’t have enough seats for a ‘majority’ and is therefore forced to negotiate with crossbenchers (independents and minor parties) to keep Parliament going.

When the Government is relying on crossbenchers to help them at every step of the way, it puts those crossbenchers (in this case the two ex Liberals Tucker and Alexander) in a prime bargaining position. They tried to demand a few things but ultimately, talks broke down last month and Rockliff called an early election. And here we are!

The Liberals are up against Labor, led by Rebecca White, who hopes that third time’s the charm for becoming Premier, having battled as opposition leader at the past two state elections. She lives in a regional town near Hobart and was just 27 when she entered state parliament in 2010.

How does voting work?

At this election, all eyes are on the lower house, formally known as the House of Assembly in Tasmania. Some seats in the state’s upper house are up for election in May.

There are five areas represented in the lower house: Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin and Lyons. In each of them, seven people will be elected, up from five at the last election, increasing the House of Assembly from 25 to 35 politicians.

Here’s something to remember for your next trivia night: Tasmania is the only state that votes differently from the rest of Australia.

Here’s how it works: The MPs are chosen through quotas. That means a party needs a certain number of votes to get a member elected.

For example: I need 200 votes to get elected, but end up with 500 votes in total. The extra 300 votes go to another two members of my party, pushing them over the line to get elected. Additional preferences are then distributed using a complex formula.

Based on polling, it’s unlikely that either major party – Labor or Liberal – will get a majority. Instead, independents and minor parties – the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network – are likely to be in prime position to decide which side forms government.

Biggest election issues: stadium?

Tasmania was the only Australian state that didn’t have an AFL or AFLW team. The league told the state: “If you want an AFL team, it comes with a stadium”.

So, the Tasmanian government put forward a plan to build a harbourside stadium in Hobart by 2029. The cost? About $715 million, with the state planning to stump up about half the bill.

Community blowback was nearly instant. Anti-stadium protesters, Federal Senator for Tasmania Jacqui Lambie chief among them, urged the Government to dump the stadium plans in favour of better healthcare and housing.

The Liberals are keen to press ahead with the plan, while Labor says it wants to review the stadium deal.

Another issue: environment

Tasmania logs about 40% of all native trees cut down in Australia for products like paper and timber. The Liberal Government plans to expand native forest logging. Labor has vowed to keep timber logging in the state until 2040, insisting it’ll prioritise industry jobs over “mainland companies”.

The Tasmanian election got a bit of Hollywood attention this week, with actor Leonardo DiCaprio posting on social media earlier this week, urging action to “save Tasmania’s giant trees”.

Jeremy Rockliff’s response to Leo? “We lead the world in sustainable native forestry”, he told a forum debate.

Cost of living

Both major parties have identified the cost of living as the top-order issue for Tasmanian voters. Labor has campaigned on its promise to better protect renters, and the Liberals have offered a $250 one-off discount on energy bills.

However, Labor wants to disprove the proverb “there’s no such thing as a free lunch” because that’s exactly what they’re promising for primary-school-aged children at public schools by 2030.

To combat the temptation of a free lunch, Premier Jeremy Rockliff combined the nostalgia of Tasmania’s old Cadbury factory with the lure of melted chocolate by pledging $12 million towards the “world’s tallest” Cadbury chocolate fountain.

Are the winds of change blowing?

In good news for the Liberal Government, not really.

Polling has shown Labor is not likely to win, but most of the pollsters are betting on a minority government – where no party is in total control. 

Therefore, we could have to wait for Jacqui Lambie’s candidates, independents, and the Greens to choose which party they want to form government. In the Premier’s words – the mix of politicians could “make the Star Wars bar scene look boring”. 

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